Demise of BNP?

by Mridul Chowdhury

Published in Daily Star on March 11, 2007
http://www.thedailystar.net/2007/03/11/d703111502126.htm

The recent arrest of Tarique Rahman has generated a wave of jubilation across the country. Before his arrest, there were many who doubted whether this caretaker government (CG) really had the ability to strike at the so-called "root of all evil." Many feared that if Tarique is not touched, much of CG's efforts to uproot corruption from politics would be left incomplete and perhaps even reversed when the CG steps down. By arresting Tarique, the CG has laid all doubts to rest. It has proven that it is powerful and well-meaning enough to get to the top of the corruption pyramid -- which many thought was unreachable.

Now, what are its implications for BNP, a party which has already been rapidly losing ground due to internal conflicts and the increasing lack of popular support due to the arrest of most of its top leaders on corruption charges.

This will undoubtedly cause the following things to happen: 1) the BNP leaders who have so far been marginalized due to the authoritarian and often condescending dominance of Tarique will now try to gain ground within the party and voice their grievances against him more openly; 2) Khaleda Zia herself will be increasingly marginalized within the party due to her inevitable and continuing unbridled extension of support to her son; 3) the internal rift within BNP will rise rapidly as the anti-Tarique camp will try to capitalize on the situation; 4) some corrupt elements within BNP who have so far been sheltered by Tarique may even leave the party thus making the pro-Tarique camp even weaker. Overall, this arrest is bound to weaken BNP to an extent from which it may never really recover.

Another important point to take into account is that Tarique's arrest must have the result of a calculated move on the part of the CG and the forces behind it. Those forces perhaps would not risk putting Tarique behind bars unless they were more or less sure that he would not in the near future come back to become the executive head of the country and take his vengeance out on those who had disgraced him.

All of these facts point to the inevitable fact that it will be hard for BNP to ever rise again as a legitimate political strength -- it is an irony that the son of a father known for his personal honesty would stoop down to the level of a godfather of criminals and his arrest would send ripples of jubilance and relief among people of all quarters. His innumerable misdeeds are now sure to surface one by one as more and more people will make their suppressed voices heard.

The BNP, like the AL and the Jatiya Party, is an extremely personality-centric political platform that has drawn its legitimacy from the image of Ziaur Rahman. As more and more people get to know about Tarique's desecration of that last name and her mother's blind eye to the shameful exploitation of his position, it is sure to bring down the party's image and acceptance to an irrecoverable state. Although BNP will possibly continue to remain in the political sphere of the country, the question now is whether it will soon join the ranks of Jatiya Party as yet another fallen and disgraced "opposition party" or whether it will re-emerge as a significant political force perhaps with new leadership.